OurComment
Bank Danamon announced 1H09 results with overall net profit stood lower than consensus, covering 45% of the Rp1.9t full year projection.
We see an increase in Net Interest Income on the back of higher asset yield (18,1% in 1H09 vs. 16,1% in 1H08), which is supported by high-lending- rate period and bigger portion of mass-market loan (51% in 1H09vs. 46% in 1H08).
Improvement in yield was sufficient to offset Cost of Fundthat rises 1.5% YoY to 7.5% in 1H09. However, total deposit continue toshow negative growth, of 10.2% YTD from Rp75.4t by end 2008.
It was then followed by a further contraction in loan, by 7.9% YTD from Rp66.9t in December2008. The bank indicated a full year loan growth target of less than 10% in2009.
Bank Negara Indonesia posted Rp1.2t profit in1H09. Overall, the QoQ figures are less attractive than the YoY development.Never the less, supported by strong result in 1Q09, the overall net profit in1H09 is still 10% above consensus estimates of Rp1.1t after being adjusted for a six months period forecast.
Loan growth target for 2009 is set at 14%-16%, but the bank has indicated the possibility of growth to reach only 10%due to delays in 10,000MW crash program.
BNI as part of bank syndication estimated only 50% of the total Rp10t fund allocated for the project will be disbursed in 2009.
We think the bottom end of the loan growth target is still achievable since in 1H09 alone, BNI managed to reach 7% loan growth.
This morning there have been 2 explosions at the Ritz Carlton hotel and JW Marriott hotel in Kuningan, a business district in Jakarta. The cause ofexplosions is still unclear.
A few years ago JW Marriott hotel, right in front of Ritz Carlton and belong to the same owner, experienced a terrorism act in the form of bomb explosion.
We expect a selling pressure in Jakarta today.
KatarinaSetiawan
Highlights
o BankDanamon: High provision put a weight on profit
o BankNegara Indonesia: 1H09 Result remain strong, backed by 1Q performance
o SummareconAgung: 1H09 sales at Rp570b Fromour chartist desk
o IDX: Wesaw doji shooting star, daily TD sequential buy countdown 12th day(near complete) and Bollinger band 20 day indicated strong signs for correction. We set the lowest target at 1985.
Today´s trading range is between 2044-2086-2102 (support) and 2144-2170-2212(resistance) .
o BBKP: Thestock price moved up above EMA 20 and 50 day. We set support level of Rp320. BUYON WEAKNESS.
o BBNI: GMMAand MA 20 day are still up. But in the near term, stochastic is in overboughtcondition. BUY ON WEAKNESS.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
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